The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has reviewed its forecast for this years’ northern hemisphere apple and pear crop based on recent insights from its members.
In a statement, WAPA said, ‘The first updates from Prognosfruit’s network of national producing associations indicate that climate change-related conditions negatively affected the crop in the weeks following the publication of the original estimates. The climatic havoc included droughts, floodings, hail, warm nights, and an increased risk of pests across the EU. In other cases, rains and colder nights have positively impacted the size development and colouring respectively in some producing regions.’
While the apple harvest is still underway in many areas, based on the first regional adjustments (both upward and downward), WAPA now estimates that the 2023 apple crop is expected to settle at just below 11 million tonnes (about 4% lower than its original forecast of 11.4 million tonnes). The original figure represented a 3.3% decrease in volume compared to the 2022 crop.
In pears, further declines in the forecasts for Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands will lead to an even lower crop than in 2021. WAPA now says the final pear crop is expected to be around 1,720,000 tonnes, about 6% lower than its initial forecast of 1,745,632 tonnes (which represented a 12.9% decrease on 2022).