The warm weather earlier this year saw a surge in grocery sales, with summer produce such as strawberries also benefiting according to the latest data from Nielsen IQ, with events such as Wimbledon and the Women’s Euros helping to boost impulse purchases.
However, concerns remain about rising costs, lower spending power and uncertainty in the jobs market. Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, commented, “The summer holiday season is now in full swing, but consumer purchasing habits tend to become less predictable during this period.
“The outlook for the next six weeks depends on two key factors: first, with the rising cost of eating out, shoppers may decide to prepare more meals at home; second, inflation is expected to climb further, which could affect how much shoppers are able to spend. Nevertheless, price competition among retailers will give shoppers more opportunities to save by comparing prices and shopping around.”
The potential impact of food inflation was underlined by the recent IGD Viewpoint report which forecast that retail food inflation will peak at 5.1 per cent in late summer 2025, significantly outpacing general inflation.
Michael Freedman, head of economic and consumer insight at IGD, said: “Amid economic uncertainty, shoppers are cautious with their finances, increasing private label purchases while reducing impulse and indulgence buys. We identified that only 29 per cent of consumers plan to cut back on grocery spending, suggesting many have already tightened their budgets and have little room to cut back further.”
The figures correspond to those from Worldpanel by Numerator, showing that grocery price inflation hit its highest level since January 2024 at 5.2 per cent in early July. As a result, sales of cheaper options such as own brands are remaining stronger. An IGD survey also showed that 83 per cent of UK consumers expect food prices to rise further, with 81 per cent expressing concerns about the rising cost of eating out.
