A new study led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) in collaboration with the University of East Anglia (UEA) predicts that future warmer temperatures in this country would be suitable for a variety of produce such as oranges, chickpeas and okra that are traditionally grown in warmer parts of the world.
Scientists investigated the future suitability for over 160 existing and new food crops in different regions of the UK under warming scenarios of 2 and 4 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.
The modelling study, part of the OpenCLIM research project, is the most comprehensive research of its kind to date and is also the first to show how suitability for certain produce will vary across the UK. It provides mapped projections for every 1km square in the UK, giving valuable information to the farming and food sectors on the future opportunities and challenges of cultivating new crops here.
Lead author Dr John Redhead, a Spatial Ecologist at UKCEH, said: “Our climate is expected to change substantially over coming decades at a time when there will be rising demand for food due to population growth. It is therefore essential that arable farming becomes more resilient; one possible solution is growing different crops that are more suited to the new local conditions.”
Many new crops highlighted in the UKCEH-led study – funded by UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) and published in the journal Climate Resilience and Sustainability – are not only more tolerant of hotter, drier summers but also benefit from milder, wetter winters.
The study authors say the majority of global food supply relies on a relatively small number of crops, and greater diversity would boost food security by improving climate resilience.
There would also be potentially positive impacts on wider biodiversity and people’s diets. Legumes such as chickpeas and soybeans, which have recently had their first commercial UK harvests, are important protein sources. This would support shifts from heavy meat consumption to a more balanced diet and lower carbon footprint. Legumes also add nitrogen to the soil, reducing the reliance on fertilisers.