Published quietly by Defra without fanfare, a new report produced by the UK Government (reportedly with input from the Joint Intelligence Committee), a new National Security Assessment on global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse has highlighted that the UK’s reliance on imported food and fertiliser makes it vulnerable to supply shocks, price volatility and geopolitical competition for resources.
Of particular reference to the food sector are the report’s judgements that, ‘Critical ecosystems that support major global food production areas and impact global climate, water and weather cycles are the most important for UK national security’ and that, ‘Without significant increases in UK food system and supply chain resilience, it is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food.’
Most worryingly, the report warns, ‘There is a realistic possibility some ecosystems start to collapse by 2030 or sooner, as a result of biodiversity loss from land use change, pollution, climate change and other drivers.’ It adds that, ‘Ecosystem collapse would place the UK’s agriculture system under great stress, leaving it struggling to pivot to the new approaches and technologies that would be required to maintain food supply.’
Although it stops short of calling for greater self-sufficiency (the report focuses on risks rather than mitigations), it does warn, ‘The UK does not have enough land to feed its population and rear livestock: a wholesale change in consumer diets would be required. It would also require greater investment in the agri-food sector so that it is capable of innovating in sustainable food production.’
Lt Gen, Richard Nugee, a former senior military commander, told the Guardian, “This assessment, a welcome and important acknowledgment of the very critical nature of the diversity of threats facing the UK, treats ecosystem collapse with the seriousness it deserves, as a threat to our national security. When risks are systemic, unavoidable and already unfolding, there is a duty to build national resilience and preparedness, which depend on understanding and honesty.”
NFU Deputy President David Exwood urged the government to provide financial support to help farmers invest in both environmental improvements and food production. “With an increasingly volatile geopolitical and climactic situation, we cannot rely on imports to sustain us. Investing in our national food security has to be a priority, and that starts with investing in the land,” he said.
