A new analysis from Rabobank has warned that, with growers across Europe facing huge cost increases, strawberry growers will be particularly challenged by a fall in real-terms wages of 12.7% in the Netherlands.
Report authors Cindy van Rijswick and Arne Bac point out that in The Netherlands and the UK strawberries are the third most popular fruit in terms of total value, but that they are also more expensive per kilogram than many other types of fruit. They point out that, ‘Due to the higher production costs, strawberries have a higher per-kilogram price than, for example, apples, oranges and bananas. As a result, the product is theoretically more sensitive to changes in purchases if prices rise and/or consumers have less to spend.
‘In the UK, we see that the purchase of fresh strawberries has recently declined after years of increase. Nevertheless, we must be careful in drawing causes and conclusions from these figures. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic and related catering closures, 2020 and 2021 were not normal years and, therefore, not good comparison material. The pound sterling has also been falling in value since April 2022, making imported strawberries more expensive in the UK.’
However, they also warn that strawberries are still largely seen as a seasonal product, and that there is a direct correlation between the price charged and consumer demand. ‘We expect the current situation to reinforce the seasonal character of the strawberry – an even larger proportion of strawberries is sold when the supply is large and prices are usually low,’ the report says. ‘We compared strawberry sales volumes and supermarket prices over the past five years for The Netherlands, the UK and Germany. It can be concluded that there is a negative correlation. At a higher price, fewer strawberries are bought.’
The proportion of the Dutch strawberry crop grown under protection has increased dramatically since 2015, but there are already signs of decline in the first half of 2022 as energy prices have risen. Many growers are also switching from winter production to summer. ‘Due to the high energy prices, the production of greenhouse strawberries in North West Europe in the months January to April 2023 will be considerably smaller than in recent years,’ the report continues. Out-of-season production will rely on imports from countries such as Spain, but increased overseas production is not anticipated.
‘In the months May, June and July 2023 we can expect a larger supply of strawberries, because both the local greenhouse strawberries and strawberries grown on open ground come to the market. In certain weeks, this may cause price pressure; but to what extent will largely depend on the weather conditions,’ continues the report. ‘In that respect, 2023 will also be a ‘normal’ abnormal season. What is new are the large cost increases for growers and others in the chain. We have not seen this before on this scale and will be the biggest challenge for the coming year. Even greater than a changing market demand, we expect.’
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