A new modelling exercise carried out by Wageningen Social & Economic Research (WSER) on behalf of the parties to the Covenant on Energy Transition for Greenhouse Horticulture 2022-2030 has analysed four different scenarios about what the country’s greenhouse sector could look like in 2040.
The report, published by Wageningen University & Research (WUR) and distributed by the Dutch glasshouse association Glastuinbouw Nederland, provides insights on potential future developments which could help with the sector’s aim of being economically viable and carbon neutral by 2040. It looks at four different scenarios based on different assumptions about area, energy consumption, energy supply and economic perspective.
“In each of the scenarios for 2040, the total area of greenhouse horticulture in the Netherlands decreases,” explains Pepijn Smit of WUR. “In the Value scenario, the decrease is relatively limited (-5%), in the Cost scenario, the decrease is significant (-40%). The Quality (-20%) and Efficiency (-25%) scenarios are somewhere in between. Behind these estimates are mainly the business perspective of greenhouse horticulture and the pressure on space from other sectors.
“In each of the scenarios for 2040, the heat demand per m2 of greenhouse horticulture decreases. In the Value and Quality scenarios, the decrease is approximately 30%, in the Costs and Efficiency scenarios, the decrease is approximately 40%. These estimates are mainly due to differences in production intensity. As an aggregation of the differences in heat demand per m2 and differences in the estimated area per scenario, the total heat demand in the scenarios varies from 22 PJ to 41 PJ.”
In the Value and Quality scenarios, the electricity demand per m2 increases by approximately 15%, mainly due to market-oriented cultivation and lighting in combination with electrification of the energy supply. However, in the Cost and Efficiency scenarios, the electricity demand per m2 decreases by approximately 15% as the effect of reducing the amount of illuminated cultivation is greater than the effect of electrifying the energy supply. As an aggregation of differences in the electricity demand per m2 and differences in the estimated area per scenario, the total electricity demand of the scenarios varies from 3.3 TWh to 7.2 TWh.
“Based on the principle of climate-neutral greenhouse horticulture in 2040, fossil energy (including natural gas) is no longer used in any of the scenarios,” he continues. “In each of the scenarios, the heat demand is met from geothermal energy, heat purchased from outside the sector and heat pumps. In the Value and Efficiency scenarios, the share of heat purchased from outside the sector is higher than the share of heat pumps, because energy networks are more widely available in these scenarios. In the Quality and Costs scenarios, the share of heat pumps is higher than the share of purchases from outside the sector, because energy networks are less available in these scenarios and the heat demand must be met more on location.”
‘All scenarios confirm that saving energy is very important to become climate neutral,’ stressed Glastuinbouw Nederland . ‘However, energy consumption will not go to zero, so CO2-free sources and associated infrastructure are necessary. The covenant starting point of climate neutral and economically viable has the best chance in the ‘value’ scenario with high social support, high market valuation and a limited decrease in area… The sector and government’s efforts are therefore focused on social support, high-quality products, energy conservation and sustainability of energy consumption.’
